Looking to the Futures

Japanese yen futures (/6J) have pulled back from their early-September highs, even as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to move away from the ultra-low interest-rate policies that defined Japan’s economy for decades. Because /6J is quoted in U.S. dollars per yen, weakness in the futures contract generally corresponds with a stronger U.S. dollar and a higher USD/JPY exchange rate.

The latest policy decision underscored that tension. The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995, and warned that underlying inflation could move above its 2% target. Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the door open to further tightening, but a 7–2 vote and no firm timetable for the next move left traders focused on the still-wide gap between Japanese and U.S. rates. Japan’s headline Consumer Price Index rose 1.9% year over year in August, while core inflation excluding fresh food eased to 1.7%, giving policymakers room to move carefully as they weigh wage gains and higher import costs against softer household demand and slower global growth.

For yen traders, the U.S.–Japan yield spread remains a central driver. Higher U.S. yields can preserve the appeal of borrowing in yen to fund higher-yielding assets, a strategy known as the carry trade, and that flow can weigh on yen futures even as the BOJ tightens. Falling U.S. yields, firmer expectations for BOJ rate increases, or a broad pullback in risk appetite could trigger carry-trade unwinds and sharp yen rallies. Intervention risk also rises when depreciation becomes rapid or disorderly. Traders will be watching Japanese inflation and wage data, BOJ guidance, U.S. rate expectations, and signals from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The dollar’s yield advantage may keep yen futures on the defensive, but a more forceful BOJ path—or action to slow yen weakness—could quickly challenge bearish positions.

This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved higher in the early hours with the S&P 500® (+0.04%), the Nasdaq-100® (+0.10%), the Russell 2000® (+0.01%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (+0.05%) all in the green. 

In Asia, major indexes closed mixed, with Shanghai (+0.18%) higher, but the Hang Seng (–0.48%) and the Nikkei (–0.60%) and posting losses. 

European trading saw the FTSE (+0.34%), the CAC (+0.12%), and the DAX (+0.52%) higher by midday. 

Soybean futures (/ZSX26) closed Monday’s session lower (–2.33%), pressured by harvest selling and uncertainty over Chinese demand after soybeans were excluded from China’s latest tariff reductions on U.S. agricultural goods. USDA data showed the U.S. soybean harvest was 12% complete as of September 20, ahead of the 8% five-year average, while weekly export sales of 582,432 metric tons fell to a 12-week low and were nearly 20% below the year-earlier level. Traders will look to Wednesday’s USDA Grain Stocks report, updated harvest progress, and any signs of additional Chinese purchases for direction.

Gold futures (/GCZ26) closed sharply lower to start the week (–3.50%), sliding to nearly two-month lows as rising Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar increased the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% and the U.S. Dollar Index rose roughly 0.2%, while stronger oil prices reinforced inflation concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep policy restrictive. With gold now well below $4200.00 per ounce on Monday, traders will be watching this week’s labor and inflation data for signs that yields and the dollar could extend—or reverse—the pressure on bullion.

Coffee futures (/KCZ26) started the week on a strong note (+3.64%), with front-month futures climbing to a two-week high as a dry forecast for Brazil’s key arabica-growing region sparked fund short covering. Private weather forecasts indicate only modest rain chances in Minas Gerais heading into October, raising concerns about the 2026/27 crop as it enters the critical flowering stage. The rebound comes despite expectations for ample supplies, with 2025/26 global coffee production up more than 4% year over year and the market projected to carry a 3 million-bag surplus into the new-crop year.

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July (interest rates)

FHFA Home Price Index for July (interest rates)

JOLTs Job Openings and Quits for August (interest rates and stock indices)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence® for September (interest rates)

Dallas Fed Services Index for September (interest rates)
 

Futures last trading day: September Milk

6-week and 52-week T-bills 

Scheduled Federal Reserve speakers include Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, and New York Fed President John Williams.

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.